MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x748d418b614db902cef69e03738dd7da39cb46ebb5ddef36a92894cff17c660a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 11,358$4,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,243.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 64c | 10,000$6,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,597.26 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 50c | 7,971$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,971.03 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 49c | 5,801$2,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,841.29 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 5,156$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 5,102$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.04 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 3,526$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.96 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 2,841$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 2,101$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 1,527$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.92 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 67c | 1,083$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 60c | 1,013$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.92 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 913$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.77 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 785.96$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 52c | 743.76$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.76 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…849bbacked Under | 18c | 483.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 50c | 389.1$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 49c | 268.16$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 48c | 259.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…0860backed Under | 44c | 228.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 27c | 221.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 17c | 167.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 37c | 161.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 138.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 39c | 113.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 49c | 83.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 38c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 17c | 68.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 61.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 55c | 60.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 52c | 56.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 56c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 48c | 51.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 62c | 44.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Under | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 73c | 38.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 53c | 36.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Over | 59c | 30.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 47c | 27.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…051abacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 53c | 23.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 50c | 22.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 48c | 21.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.