TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,497 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians48c552.77$265 inWon+$287.746,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros37c507.4$189 inLost-$188.962,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros38c493$189 inLost-$188.768,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Cleveland Guardians51c453.34$231 inWon+$222.141,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros43c271.55$116 inLost-$115.965,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians55c206.45$114 inWon+$92.012,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros21c141$30 inLost-$29.613,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c37…44fdbacked Houston Astros36c130.99$48 inLost-$47.83351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Cleveland Guardians54c120.11$65 inWon+$55.573949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians44c118.34$52 inWon+$66.62,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Cleveland Guardians65c110.88$72 inWon+$38.811,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Houston Astros35c97.05$34 inLost-$33.9779255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros24c96.42$23 inLost-$22.912,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros48c78.62$38 inLost-$37.61,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Cleveland Guardians51c76.92$39 inWon+$37.6912253.3%65 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros21c74.74$16 inLost-$15.71,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda48…5926backed Houston Astros46c63$29 inLost-$29.2912339%48 W · 75 L-9.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros72c62.35$45 inLost-$44.7511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians61c59.42$36 inWon+$23.364,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Houston Astros61c50$31 inLost-$30.535248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians30c49.72$15 inWon+$34.713,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Houston Astros63c41.27$26 inLost-$2677836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians65c34.87$23 inWon+$12.24,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros37c31.73$12 inLost-$11.742,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc0…6a24backed Cleveland Guardians52c27.62$14 inWon+$13.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians48c23.34$11 inWon+$12.2310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros66c20$13 inLost-$13.156,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1144…4b04backed Houston Astros53c19.61$10 inLost-$10.341872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros66c15.39$10 inLost-$10.161,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros70c14.3$10 inLost-$10.011,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.