MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06920e369ffb455abd58dc14cbd9fde72438b6cffc336e792182b5682d98b0e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 19,063$11,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,625.31 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 10,371$6,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,153.53 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 39c | 9,754$3,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,838.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 7,218$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Houston Astros | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 40c | 2,703$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…fcf7backed Houston Astros | 36c | 2,497$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 1,573$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.47 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 41c | 1,505$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 40c | 1,360$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.72 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 998.83$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Astros | 40c | 969.37$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.75 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 910.08$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.93 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 909.59$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.74 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Houston Astros | 39c | 660.92$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Houston Astros | 40c | 599$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Houston Astros | 40c | 576.68$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 38c | 512.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 14c | 506$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 40c | 370.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 349.41$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.86 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 330.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 262.43$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 258.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 241.5$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 162.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Houston Astros | 40c | 148.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 135.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Houston Astros | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Houston Astros | 42c | 75.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Houston Astros | 40c | 74.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 67.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros | 35c | 50.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 50.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Houston Astros | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Houston Astros | 42c | 46.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 46.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Houston Astros | 33c | 44.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Houston Astros | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 38.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Houston Astros | 40c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 26.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 19.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 18.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.