MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x653b348635ffb3d4232f71da9be75691ae8d26b7901cedfd89e965d0f1d66d7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 70c | 7,458$5,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.43 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 3,214$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 1,884$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 893.61$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 23c | 858.91$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 23c | 546$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…96e2backed Under | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Under | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 440.03$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 23c | 437$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 42c | 266.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 62c | 254.13$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 40c | 217.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 28c | 147.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 17c | 139.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 34c | 128.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Under | 39c | 101.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 39c | 84.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Under | 35c | 75.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 57c | 53.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 53.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Under | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Over | 63c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Over | 59c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1144…4b04backed Over | 57c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 73c | 16.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.