TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,167 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians56c276.28$154 inWon+$121.7912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Cleveland Guardians35c130.77$46 inWon+$851,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros15c130$20 inLost-$19.61,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros65c100$65 inLost-$654,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians13c98.19$13 inWon+$85.422,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians32c84$27 inWon+$57.488,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros43c67.04$29 inLost-$28.585,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Houston Astros41c61.04$25 inLost-$251,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46b1…428cbacked Houston Astros51c58.34$30 inLost-$3019163.4%121 W · 70 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Houston Astros42c50.86$21 inLost-$21.3616261.1%99 W · 63 L+14.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Houston Astros62c28.53$18 inLost-$17.6426063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Houston Astros70c20.71$14 inLost-$14.544345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed Houston Astros78c19.99$16 inLost-$15.5918347%86 W · 97 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros80c19.63$16 inLost-$15.71,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.