TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,483 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x39d3…9ef0backed Houston Astros30c5,677$1,703 inLost-$1,703.123538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians70c5,178$3,630 inWon+$1,547.3311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians70c540.75$376 inWon+$164.35,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians72c412.18$295 inWon+$116.9712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8328…e5ebbacked Houston Astros31c393.19$120 inLost-$1209339.8%37 W · 56 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians63c310.17$196 inWon+$114.676,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Houston Astros27c255$69 inLost-$68.81,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Houston Astros34c224.35$77 inLost-$76.671,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros33c207$68 inLost-$68.328,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros15c160$24 inLost-$23.831,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Cleveland Guardians70c149.5$104 inWon+$45.411,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Houston Astros30c100.87$30 inLost-$3012128.1%34 W · 87 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Houston Astros30c89$27 inLost-$26.770737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians64c88.91$57 inWon+$32.222,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Houston Astros30c82.93$25 inLost-$24.881,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros40c60.2$24 inLost-$23.786,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Houston Astros26c43.08$11 inLost-$11.277836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians70c35$25 inWon+$10.452,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Cleveland Guardians70c34.3$24 inWon+$10.2922154.3%120 W · 101 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ac…427fbacked Cleveland Guardians73c33.72$25 inWon+$9.17050%35 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Cleveland Guardians73c27.39$20 inWon+$7.444345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Cleveland Guardians73c21.29$16 inWon+$5.7874657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.