MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9db03dc240d7b9392a03f4bafc61d380a1a51cd7f654b103dde287d4c120ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 55c | 3,074$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.03 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Rays | 45c | 2,400$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Royals | 55c | 2,241$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.55 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Royals | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 13c | 1,960$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.69 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…55a0backed Royals | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 19c | 1,526$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Rays | 45c | 1,268$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.4 | 380 | 47.6%181 W · 199 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Rays | 46c | 1,130$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.5 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Royals | 47c | 1,066$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…efc0backed Rays | 45c | 770$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 15c | 681.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…6bddbacked Rays | 70c | 654.7$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Rays | 45c | 596.33$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.98 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Royals | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9850…4708backed Rays | 43c | 508.48$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.93 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Royals | 55c | 495$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.25 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Rays | 44c | 494.36$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.19 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Royals | 56c | 469.75$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.06 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Rays | 43c | 465.44$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.65 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…15c7backed Royals | 55c | 436.36$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Royals | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Royals | 55c | 245.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -9.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Rays | 44c | 234.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Royals | 50c | 228.68$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Rays | 44c | 227$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Royals | 55c | 223$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Rays | 46c | 218.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Rays | 44c | 216$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Royals | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Royals | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Rays | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Royals | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…26bcbacked Rays | 46c | 153$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…aa8dbacked Rays | 45c | 137$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rays | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Royals | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +13.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Rays | 44c | 122$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Rays | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Rays | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Rays | 44c | 113$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Rays | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…5f27backed Royals | 55c | 108$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Rays | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rays | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1c…68dfbacked Royals | 55c | 97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Rays | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 473 | 48.8%231 W · 242 L | -22.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Rays | 60c | 90.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…2603backed Royals | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Rays | 68c | 82.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 249 | 53%132 W · 117 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Rays | 44c | 77.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Rays | 43c | 75.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rays | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Royals | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Rays | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Rays | 43c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Rays | 64c | 65.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Rays | 44c | 58.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Royals | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…3ee6backed Royals | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Rays | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…b03fbacked Rays | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 150 | 80%120 W · 30 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Royals | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…c14fbacked Rays | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97da…d63bbacked Rays | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Rays | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…ef7cbacked Royals | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…c8fabacked Rays | 71c | 32.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rays | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Rays | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…c6debacked Rays | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 122 | 67.2%82 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Rays | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…f113backed Rays | 44c | 28.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Rays | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Rays | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.