MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9ec63974e94aad91b67a949422c7dec77282fc28b5c425737a3a2506f7d7163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 30c | 1,149$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 69c | 869.71$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.81 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 49c | 750$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.32 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 58c | 662.91$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.14 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 51c | 518$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Yes | 37c | 435.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 42c | 279.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked No | 6c | 244.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 73c | 236$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…7802backed No | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 78.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 52c | 67.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 35c | 54.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…b865backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.