MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723c84943686a519c6d38e5def46f9069f3abe4591e2c4391bb271200f110db9

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
Resolved: Jul 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,785 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaa77…15a5backed Philadelphia Phillies	64c	15,634$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,633.64	232	55.6%129 W · 103 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets	36c	15,328$5,521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,521.26	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies	44c	4,000$1,760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,239.99	447	49.2%220 W · 227 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets	56c	3,640$2,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,038.4	1,909	53.5%1,021 W · 888 L	+29.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies	52c	3,215$1,682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,532.87	1,291	51%658 W · 633 L	-15.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Philadelphia Phillies	50c	1,650$821 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$828.76	1,851	53.1%982 W · 869 L	+18.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets	47c	1,475$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$686.05	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed New York Mets	45c	1,470$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$664.28	291	41.6%121 W · 170 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets	45c	1,293$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.14	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Philadelphia Phillies	64c	1,106$708 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$398.32	1,796	43.8%786 W · 1,010 L	-33.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets	35c	1,066$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.16	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets	56c	1,015$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.97	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Mets	54c	790.84$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.49	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Philadelphia Phillies	43c	592.33$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.63	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed New York Mets	44c	551.22$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.14	413	46.7%193 W · 220 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies	64c	549$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.24	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies	62c	525.69$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.58	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets	49c	415.98$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.82	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked New York Mets	56c	400$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	457	48.6%222 W · 235 L	-11.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed New York Mets	54c	377.83$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.39	952	52.9%504 W · 448 L	+17.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	372.75$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.74	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd23e…e4a3backed Philadelphia Phillies	63c	317.46$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.46	117	50.4%59 W · 58 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Philadelphia Phillies	50c	309.1$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.46	499	42.9%214 W · 285 L	-31.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	300$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	586	52.7%309 W · 277 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets	56c	282.37$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.13	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets	58c	272.47$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.03	859	49.1%422 W · 437 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies	66c	232.68$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	293	44.7%131 W · 162 L	+13.0wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	432	47%203 W · 229 L	-19.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3f2…22e2backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	213.8$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.59	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Philadelphia Phillies	52c	187.79$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.78	677	42.2%286 W · 391 L	-36.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed New York Mets	55c	185$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.75	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked New York Mets	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	652	48.3%315 W · 337 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed New York Mets	57c	170.91$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.42	970	50.7%492 W · 478 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed New York Mets	56c	164.59$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.17	568	51.4%292 W · 276 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Philadelphia Phillies	59c	142.48$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.32	1,814	49.1%891 W · 923 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked New York Mets	44c	140$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	167	46.7%78 W · 89 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets	56c	124$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.82	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	123.6$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.98	664	48.2%320 W · 344 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	120.45$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.45	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies	71c	108.03$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.14	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Philadelphia Phillies	48c	106.34$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.65	1,172	49.1%575 W · 597 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked New York Mets	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	476	46.2%220 W · 256 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Philadelphia Phillies	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.23	704	50.1%353 W · 351 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed New York Mets	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies	59c	96.84$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.68	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x776f…32b7backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	95.56$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.56	96	57.3%55 W · 41 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed New York Mets	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a3…d760backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	79.55$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.55	244	44.7%109 W · 135 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets	35c	77.75$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.38	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	63.13$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.72	91	47.3%43 W · 48 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…97bbbacked Philadelphia Phillies	45c	55.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.56	391	49.1%192 W · 199 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies	50c	55$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	473	45.7%216 W · 257 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed New York Mets	36c	51$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	114	42.1%48 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Philadelphia Phillies	57c	49.47$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.27	248	43.5%108 W · 140 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58c…3a5cbacked Philadelphia Phillies	45c	49.4$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.17	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Philadelphia Phillies	45c	47.91$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.35	704	55%387 W · 317 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets	50c	46.38$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.37	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets	56c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x273d…fb63backed Philadelphia Phillies	53c	43.31$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.41	106	58.5%62 W · 44 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies	59c	42.84$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.49	2,583	61.4%1,587 W · 996 L	+70.9wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed New York Mets	50c	40.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c8…b949backed New York Mets	38c	39.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	119	49.6%59 W · 60 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed New York Mets	51c	38.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	536	44.6%239 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed New York Mets	46c	35.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	424	48.1%204 W · 220 L	-9.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked New York Mets	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	297	47.1%140 W · 157 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies	50c	35.68$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.84	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9169…0359backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	33.33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed New York Mets	49c	32.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	830	53%440 W · 390 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked New York Mets	42c	31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	526	38.4%202 W · 324 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed New York Mets	56c	30.64$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed New York Mets	49c	30.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	407	53.3%217 W · 190 L	+9.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7319…c664backed New York Mets	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	309	28.5%88 W · 221 L	-46.7wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Philadelphia Phillies	67c	29$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.57	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Philadelphia Phillies	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	150	50%75 W · 75 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d7a…ebe3backed New York Mets	55c	24.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	66	40.9%27 W · 39 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Philadelphia Phillies	46c	22.43$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.08	1,195	50%597 W · 598 L	+5.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed New York Mets	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Philadelphia Phillies	66c	19.97$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.79	739	49.8%368 W · 371 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b92…93afbacked Philadelphia Phillies	63c	16.43$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.08	420	41.9%176 W · 244 L	-11.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb4…b6e1backed Philadelphia Phillies	78c	14.1$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.1	140	53.6%75 W · 65 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event