South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea3de08ee14d18835831c8fe51cbe463d77f3178acb99940bd735eb2cf3c15f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 73c | 25,479$18,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,879.31 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 6,508$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.43 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 6,366$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.88 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 26c | 2,597$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.22 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 2,415$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.19 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,008$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.89 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 1,940$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.65 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…7ea4backed Yes | 27c | 1,405$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 983.4$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.91 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 873.84$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.48 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 859.12$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.4 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 25c | 785.46$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 59c | 769$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.74 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 30c | 736.89$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.67 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 22c | 670.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked Yes | 26c | 619.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 538.9$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.25 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 385.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes | 29c | 345.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 29c | 331.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 27c | 329.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…e958backed Yes | 27c | 300.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 23c | 291.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 17c | 262.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 34c | 260.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 34c | 244.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 77c | 236.75$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Yes | 42c | 211.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…41ebbacked Yes | 27c | 154$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 77c | 128.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 26c | 122.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 71c | 120.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Yes | 25c | 114.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Yes | 29c | 108$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…fe86backed Yes | 49c | 97.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…6f1bbacked No | 74c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 64c | 85.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…6c98backed No | 75c | 76.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 72.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 24c | 68.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…621abacked No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 54c | 62.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 70c | 60.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 65c | 57.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 73c | 53.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 27c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 50.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Yes | 27c | 49.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Yes | 27c | 44.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…6c97backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 47c | 38.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Yes | 43c | 33.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 64c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 63c | 20.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…979ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-03?Yes won
- Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-03-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.