South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-03-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b832a84aaece7c1ef04fb4f4dfc87cac6b0a9872bb19beb3a6970663860682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 26c | 8,020$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.9 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 5,350$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.84 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 43c | 4,106$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.88 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 25c | 3,368$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.37 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 2,144$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.8 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 74c | 1,794$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.21 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed No | 78c | 1,537$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes | 38c | 1,392$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 25c | 1,248$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.32 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 79c | 979.28$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.52 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 49c | 938.45$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.84 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 44c | 910.23$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.03 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 51c | 834.7$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 23c | 682.45$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.96 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…f5f4backed No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 477$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 470.06$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 446.45$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…217ebacked Yes | 26c | 388.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 54c | 339.16$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.03 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076e…a6a4backed Yes | 39c | 325.3$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…1d22backed Yes | 4c | 298.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 207.48$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 163.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 75c | 159.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 40c | 157.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 75c | 150.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 22c | 149.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 69c | 139.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 25c | 137.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 130.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 28c | 113.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…fa69backed Yes | 26c | 112.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 75c | 103$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 80c | 98.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 22c | 87.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…9ac3backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 26c | 84.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 16c | 79.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 23c | 74.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed No | 77c | 71.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 68.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…06c6backed Yes | 23c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 27c | 62.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…fe86backed No | 70c | 62.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ce…d766backed No | 43c | 61.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 60c | 55.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 54.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 54.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 51.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 54c | 48.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 44c | 46.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…a1dfbacked No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 50c | 44.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Yes | 23c | 43.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 41.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…bfb3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 40c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 36.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…e920backed No | 72c | 25.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 51c | 23.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked No | 59c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked No | 75c | 22.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…dd0abacked No | 76c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…2239backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…afbabacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-03-03?this page
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-03?Yes won
- Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.