Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea902a7256c01e13658a586d54b9d056cd5b1f70e5ea9f999a3fb42a4fd98848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 815.25$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.87 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 397.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 24c | 380.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 276.46$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.06 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 43c | 240.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 215.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.14 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 41c | 197.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 170.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 141.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 73c | 132.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 125.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 65c | 120.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 119.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 10c | 119.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 63c | 94.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 91.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 90.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 90.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 61c | 89.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 86.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 56c | 84.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 83.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 82.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 43c | 81.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 42c | 81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 78.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 74.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 70c | 63.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 25c | 61.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 58.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 56.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…7439backed No | 63c | 54.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 53.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 58c | 46.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 46.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 44.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 32c | 38.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 37.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 36.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 37c | 29.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 80c | 28.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 378 | 56.3%213 W · 165 L | +31.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 53c | 24.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 23.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 51c | 23.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 21.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 20.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 213 | 63.4%135 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 461 | 62.3%287 W · 174 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed Yes | 58c | 17.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.