Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8344bf8c5cf2c908a0585ffc6c68d4785a369bd234b7c238cba96966baa5857
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 1,370$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 412.75$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 49c | 379.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.98 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 46c | 372.66$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 283.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 271.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 270.83$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.48 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 6c | 263$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 99 | 34.3%34 W · 65 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 206.42$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 189.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 54c | 179.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 47c | 178$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 65c | 154.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 128.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 52c | 118.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 113.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 84.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 63c | 73.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 68.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 50c | 60.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 58.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 76c | 56.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 57c | 56.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 31c | 55.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 53.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 49.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 49.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 48.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 48c | 46.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 45c | 44.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 40.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 40.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 44c | 36.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 51c | 35.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 57c | 32.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 31.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 29.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked Yes | 55c | 26.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 57c | 26.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 24.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 23.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 52c | 22.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 55c | 21.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed Yes | 53c | 19.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.