La Liga · resolved market
Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb46b0156ecda9bb3121a74472f6675749f51569fb89930855e89d817c73cfe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c86…f1f1backed No | 80c | 1,896$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 78c | 1,346$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 23c | 1,164$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 1,081$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.71 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 647.93$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.58 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 77c | 545$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 11c | 465.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 20c | 444.38$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 20c | 444.38$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a72…03dabacked Yes | 24c | 410$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 79c | 395.97$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 22c | 390.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 385.74$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 21c | 380.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…4489backed Yes | 9c | 370.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda8…a833backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 236$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 80c | 205$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0860…d30fbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 21c | 150.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…4415backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…355ebacked Yes | 23c | 147.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 78c | 133.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…9283backed No | 80c | 125.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d8…3a21backed Yes | 23c | 108.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 127 | 22.8%29 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…f5aebacked Yes | 22c | 98.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…789abacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 79c | 89.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 20c | 75.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…c311backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…04babacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…dda6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 77c | 42.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 29.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 79c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 79c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will Atletico Madrid vs. Villarreal end in a draw?No won
- Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.