Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebbcf6a2f63567fb2b3ea0cfa720ccf2e423d4920da4bb42c0aa874bff53a820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 48c | 600.9$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.21 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 73c | 420.19$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 25c | 384$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 71c | 377.08$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 9c | 376.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 338.95$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 71c | 306.34$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 44c | 276.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 269.47$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 43c | 257.82$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.56 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 31c | 257.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 221.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 67c | 218.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 6c | 213.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 205.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 15c | 193.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 25c | 167.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 70c | 155.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 140.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 76c | 130.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 79c | 127.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 118.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 53c | 115.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdf…4c8fbacked Yes | 28c | 113.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 105.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 38c | 103.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 99.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 12c | 95.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 94.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 31c | 89.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 85.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed Yes | 61c | 81.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 71.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 67.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 63.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 56c | 62.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 36c | 54.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 28c | 51.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 64c | 47.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 32c | 47.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 24c | 41.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 41.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 25c | 41.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 39.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 36.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 35.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 36c | 33.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 61c | 32.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 28.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 39c | 26.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 25.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 77c | 23.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 62c | 21.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…14cdbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 63c | 16.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 15.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.