Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebbe7f273497f11f96d6b1916013146fe3d94070a5e83b057724312916c25ca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 6c | 1,080$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 8c | 731.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 13c | 554.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 297.87$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 290.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 287.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 53c | 276.19$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.71 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 246.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 212.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 208.02$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 39c | 202.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.01 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 199.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.68 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 194.92$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 172$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 22c | 156.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 139.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 133.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 71c | 113.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 106.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 37c | 103.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 102.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 85.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 77.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 76.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 60c | 75.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 42c | 75.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 51.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 50.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 45.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 60c | 45.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 68c | 43.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 76c | 39.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 65c | 30.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 50c | 24.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 71c | 16.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 69c | 15.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.