MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebd3c8348c5653cbcf68e8c98adb0ce8f9974fb9bf6a10384e75fd91a1717d17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 2,416$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 2,270$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,705$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 1,639$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.49 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 1,360$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 1,216$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 646.61$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.71 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 433.43$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 299$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 179$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 12c | 162.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 122.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 91.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 77c | 89.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 85.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 80.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 69.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 59.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 36.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 25.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…df88backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 22.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +299%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.