TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$275,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$376,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under53c106,664$56,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,562.961,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over48c87,120$41,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,610.0610,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over48c15,466$7,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,389.9311,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Over54c10,573$5,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,709.5212149.6%60 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under47c6,762$3,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,583.64,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001,07848.1%518 W · 560 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Over52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08012452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over53c3,187$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.63,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f1…7da3backed Under58c2,017$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.771794.1%16 W · 1 L+5.9wins+0.35per pick59cpaid+80%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over49c2,011$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.691,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Under67c2,000$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.382042.6%349 W · 471 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8c…e77dbacked Under62c1,818$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.686377.8%49 W · 14 L+10.0wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+93.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under48c1,743$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.210757.9%62 W · 45 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over52c1,667$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.841,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under46c1,600$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86464752.4%339 W · 308 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacda…894cbacked Under30c1,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f9…b48bbacked Under30c1,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0502100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dfe…c9cebacked Under30c1,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over39c1,474$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.668,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over47c1,412$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.983,04148%1,461 W · 1,580 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over53c1,380$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.4557551.7%297 W · 278 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under47c1,200$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63657053.3%304 W · 266 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over53c975$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.751,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e61…4ccabacked Under48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over38c757.81$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.819,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over53c678.98$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.764,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over53c578.98$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.52,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under62c465$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.74,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under61c401.91$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…e183backed Under47c378.72$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.724050%20 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over53c374.53$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.51,21953.9%657 W · 562 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over53c339$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.671,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1325,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Over51c249.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.547552%247 W · 228 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a3…44dcbacked Over53c212.96$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8710344.7%46 W · 57 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under49c208$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.081,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1088,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Under47c184.77$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9310351.5%53 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over29c146.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.188656.4%500 W · 386 L+30.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Under46c140.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8319248.4%93 W · 99 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over50c134.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2549540.2%199 W · 296 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Under47c130$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.96256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf47f…15adbacked Under48c120.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.564759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b4…1306backed Under47c112.77$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.774348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under30c108$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4970737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x841f…ad4bbacked Under47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.381637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over25c101.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.261,81949.3%896 W · 923 L-24.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over32c100.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1653238.5%205 W · 327 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,38650.6%702 W · 684 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Under46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5428245.7%129 W · 153 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Over50c99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4422949.8%114 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under46c98.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.896,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Over33c97.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4333352.3%174 W · 159 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under76c92.37$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.945,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under61c81.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9328749.5%142 W · 145 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under52c74.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.561,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Under48c67.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.082,04439.5%808 W · 1,236 L-24.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…44d6backed Under73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.25554.5%30 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over53c59.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.840446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under46c59.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1935747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over49c58.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4828948.1%139 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Over22c55.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2914336.4%52 W · 91 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Over32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1617145.6%78 W · 93 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Under53c48.34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8932846.6%153 W · 175 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Under48c47.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8542849.1%210 W · 218 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over39c47.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.381,85544%817 W · 1,038 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under48c46.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.282,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under47c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4713345.9%61 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Under48c41.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6696349%472 W · 491 L-39.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over50c37.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Under47c36.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5831354.6%171 W · 142 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under48c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.234846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x472e…f338backed Under47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.914450%22 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over37c30.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5159534.5%205 W · 390 L-22.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over49c30.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Over52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513666.2%90 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under62c25.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7255645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under62c23.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9149551.9%257 W · 238 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under62c17.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4842551.8%220 W · 205 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.