MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9376cdf5670765a21f0f14047a4fcb5e576f3a4a178c9ac69457174d9e350549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 1,092$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 1,071$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 75c | 717.36$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 527.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 483.53$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 27c | 411.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 387$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 349.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 339$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 331.79$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 318.64$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.03 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 303.46$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 255.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Kansas City Royals | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 185.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 169.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Kansas City Royals | 19c | 163.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 126.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 107.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Twins | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 81.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 79.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 54.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 53.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 53.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 53.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 51.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 31c | 45.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 41.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 37.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 32.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 31.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Minnesota Twins | 80c | 22.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Minnesota Twins | 80c | 19.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Minnesota Twins | 78c | 18.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.