MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437bd92525bc2ff711102e0d45deba4700bb3c911994e6d4acc880403f40f35a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 23c | 14,465$3,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,301.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 14,143$10,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 1,334$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 1,067$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Kansas City Royals | 76c | 999.37$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.02 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 992.94$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.49 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 31c | 856.84$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.22 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 512.74$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Minnesota Twins | 25c | 426.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 320$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 235.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Minnesota Twins | 17c | 186.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 160.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 78c | 149.95$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 146.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770f…ac44backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 144.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 144.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 130.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 124.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 104.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 98.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 95.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 72.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 71.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 62.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 60.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 60.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 40.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 39.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 37.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 34.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 32.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 22.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Kansas City Royals | 75c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.