Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebf55b7e4f810ee33cea0450eefd9000228a68e67c3d679f9705e0020ebd7d73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 859.01$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.46 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 845.86$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.06 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 583.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 551.92$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.12 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 513.87$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.46 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 487.17$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 425$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 334.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 278.64$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 34c | 261.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 35c | 234.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 16c | 222.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 35c | 213$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 209.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 59c | 201$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 60c | 187.65$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 46c | 170.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 161$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 55c | 159.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 50c | 157.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 142.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 37c | 139.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544d…1ecabacked Yes | 24c | 139.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +690.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 133.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 45c | 133$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 118.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 66c | 115.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 31c | 115.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 99.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 29c | 96.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…811dbacked No | 69c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 94.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 89.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 89.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 79.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 58c | 77.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 68.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 44c | 67.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 67.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 64.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 31c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 19c | 62.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a92…307ebacked Yes | 37c | 62.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 61.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 46c | 61.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 59.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 35c | 58.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 64c | 58.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 46c | 55.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…5c65backed Yes | 37c | 55.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 55.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 28c | 53.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 52.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 51.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 56c | 49.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 49.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 48.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 46.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 45.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 43.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 42.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 42.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…b144backed Yes | 24c | 41.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 40.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 62c | 40.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked No | 71c | 40.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…1486backed Yes | 46c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 34c | 36.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 35.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 73c | 34.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 33.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 56c | 31.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…cd63backed Yes | 36c | 30.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 268 | 63.1%169 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 55c | 29.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.