Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8fe832c99d2fc26d3cc857d7a3d0c17ad7ddb81b6229898e4b994b61e71b6a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 33c | 1,211$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.01 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 58c | 965$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.5 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 943.14$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.15 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 733.81$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.45 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…8748backed No | 8c | 607.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 547.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.58 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 24c | 499.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 476.64$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.28 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 35c | 430.05$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 69c | 334.03$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 313.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 286.84$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.31 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 275$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 43c | 265.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 56c | 213.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 76c | 205.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 43c | 161.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 58c | 161.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 156.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 151$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 149.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 139.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 136$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…9484backed Yes | 73c | 135.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 75c | 133.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 464 | 56.5%262 W · 202 L | +54.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 46c | 129.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 39c | 126.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 120.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 117.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 64c | 105.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 104.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 102.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 38c | 101.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 100.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 40c | 100.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 80c | 99.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…cd63backed Yes | 49c | 91.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 67c | 88.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 27c | 85.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 82.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 61c | 78.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 75c | 73.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 128 | 84.4%108 W · 20 L | +24.2wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 40c | 70.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 49c | 69.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 68.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 59c | 64.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 63c | 63.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 27c | 62.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 64c | 60.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 795 | 63.5%505 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 57.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 67c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…100ebacked Yes | 72c | 54.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 51.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 51.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 27c | 50.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 33c | 50.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 42c | 48.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 46.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…a968backed Yes | 73c | 45.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 57c | 43.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…f946backed Yes | 69c | 42.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 71c | 42.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 67c | 39.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 38.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed No | 47c | 37.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 65c | 37.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 54c | 37.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 71c | 37.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes | 71c | 36.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 36.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 72c | 36.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 33c | 35.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 67c | 34.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 33.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…b233backed Yes | 39c | 33.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 31.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa5…4f5abacked Yes | 48c | 31.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.