NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Stars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec1dae777e5511552bf0b6a7aea1d2216f2a5c858d90167266d4cf748ac3fbe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Flames, Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Stars | 77c | 1,857$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.55 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Flames | 31c | 1,366$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.34 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Flames | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Flames | 2c | 887.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Flames | 34c | 671.15$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.19 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Stars | 66c | 670.85$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.09 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Stars | 68c | 440.27$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Stars | 73c | 369.61$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Stars | 69c | 360.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48d…9f73backed Stars | 69c | 345.37$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed Stars | 65c | 279$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Stars | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Flames | 30c | 165.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Flames | 17c | 164.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Flames | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8f39backed Flames | 32c | 149.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…dde1backed Stars | 68c | 149.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2088…9c55backed Stars | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ef…328bbacked Flames | 32c | 147.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3420…1856backed Stars | 68c | 147.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…03c5backed Stars | 69c | 143.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…75bebacked Flames | 31c | 143.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…d0d5backed Stars | 68c | 141.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Stars | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Flames | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Stars | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Flames | 34c | 67.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Stars | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed Flames | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065f…ab50backed Flames | 42c | 54.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Stars | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a59…cdbdbacked Flames | 47c | 48.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…39debacked Flames | 24c | 46.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Stars | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e0…f1aabacked Stars | 51c | 42.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Stars | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…e6f4backed Stars | 76c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Flames | 33c | 35.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Flames | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…18cabacked Flames | 33c | 33.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…a99fbacked Flames | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf8…1fa4backed Stars | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…77fbbacked Stars | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…07a8backed Stars | 68c | 30.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed Stars | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Stars | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…836cbacked Stars | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3a…3499backed Stars | 68c | 28.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…716dbacked Stars | 68c | 27.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…49cabacked Stars | 67c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Stars | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Stars | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…d131backed Stars | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…4919backed Stars | 68c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Stars | 63c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 212 | 55.7%118 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…47b0backed Stars | 68c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.