Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec248c39e1f880b44983386f3d001dc32173ef7aba8337fc1aedd9b2508f4f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 72c | 2,435$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.98 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 56c | 1,297$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.32 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 24c | 1,148$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.52 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 50c | 1,124$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.39 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 70c | 850.56$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.8 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 35c | 616.09$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.15 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 58c | 455.15$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.56 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 407.14$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.5 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 41c | 346.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 334.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.71 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 30c | 214.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.44 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19e0…d1aebacked No | 36c | 210.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 71c | 141.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 67c | 139.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 47c | 116.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +233%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed No | 52c | 96.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…70b1backed No | 64c | 93.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 77.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Yes | 49c | 76.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 48c | 66.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b6…ed4ebacked Yes | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 46c | 61.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…bcfdbacked No | 65c | 61.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 51.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 73c | 51.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 30c | 51.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 63c | 43.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…276dbacked No | 50c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c2…927bbacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 73c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 73c | 15.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 10?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 10?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.