Lol · resolved market

LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec7ce787529a0520fba4c8aa6a939551ed5edba46dfeb9fdb97d8610e397cf60

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Francesinhasof GTZ Esports, Francesinhas
Resolved: May 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $70,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,046 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x58f8…dc70backed Francesinhas	80c	27,336$21,844 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,492.38	403	70.2%283 W · 120 L	+31.3wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked GTZ Esports	18c	12,175$2,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,197.67	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked GTZ Esports	17c	2,748$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.12	434	42.4%184 W · 250 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed GTZ Esports	19c	2,734$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.69	2,202	33.3%733 W · 1,469 L	-72.4wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked GTZ Esports	18c	2,574$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.68	244	45.1%110 W · 134 L	-8.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked GTZ Esports	13c	2,308$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b21…4b63backed GTZ Esports	23c	2,100$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.44	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	59cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30bf…a6f7backed GTZ Esports	76c	1,977$1,505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,504.74	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed GTZ Esports	22c	1,923$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.58	183	36.6%67 W · 116 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa304…0b05backed Francesinhas	23c	1,740$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,347.2	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked GTZ Esports	13c	1,493$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	474	53.4%253 W · 221 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3389…5bcfbacked GTZ Esports	20c	1,418$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.68	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed GTZ Esports	17c	1,374$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.56	169	42%71 W · 98 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked GTZ Esports	22c	1,364$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed GTZ Esports	23c	1,223$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.96	444	51.8%230 W · 214 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed GTZ Esports	20c	1,128$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.6	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked GTZ Esports	20c	1,113$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.93	1,063	47.2%502 W · 561 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Francesinhas	76c	1,000$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	53	34%18 W · 35 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked GTZ Esports	21c	999.99$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	75	37.3%28 W · 47 L	-6.8wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed GTZ Esports	22c	995.45$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	326	50%163 W · 163 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed GTZ Esports	80c	992.1$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$789.68	1,310	37.3%489 W · 821 L	-86.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Francesinhas	45c	897.16$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.76	401	45.4%182 W · 219 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed GTZ Esports	21c	849.94$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.49	498	47.2%235 W · 263 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked GTZ Esports	4c	734.65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.69	857	42.7%366 W · 491 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed GTZ Esports	10c	710$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.37	1,372	48.6%667 W · 705 L	+57.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c3a…9649backed Francesinhas	76c	669.9$509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76af…25c3backed Francesinhas	23c	538.95$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.99	105	51.4%54 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x135d…56c0backed GTZ Esports	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32f9…9725backed GTZ Esports	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed GTZ Esports	23c	500$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-6.9wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed GTZ Esports	23c	500$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3056…4fefbacked Francesinhas	26c	497.19$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.92	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Francesinhas	78c	489.16$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.27	2,938	44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L	-92.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed GTZ Esports	22c	451.26$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.28	219	43.8%96 W · 123 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…c55dbacked GTZ Esports	17c	417.65$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	113	30.1%34 W · 79 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Francesinhas	21c	404.76$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.76	438	39.7%174 W · 264 L	-24.3wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd97…a2c9backed GTZ Esports	15c	355$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Francesinhas	77c	347.77$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.48	1,485	50.1%744 W · 741 L	+67.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed GTZ Esports	20c	331.43$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.9	1,826	39.9%728 W · 1,098 L	-61.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed GTZ Esports	28c	313$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.44	797	45.8%365 W · 432 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed GTZ Esports	19c	299.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	1,156	45.1%521 W · 635 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Francesinhas	20c	232.04$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.41	438	37.9%166 W · 272 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed94…c059backed GTZ Esports	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	166	23.5%39 W · 127 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4967…4292backed GTZ Esports	13c	209.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.9	302	31.1%94 W · 208 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed GTZ Esports	22c	205$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.1	325	42.2%137 W · 188 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed GTZ Esports	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Francesinhas	21c	196.16$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.97	206	31.6%65 W · 141 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed GTZ Esports	20c	174.42$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.88	679	31.8%216 W · 463 L	-31.9wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed GTZ Esports	25c	170.8$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	545	29.7%162 W · 383 L	-34.7wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed GTZ Esports	21c	155.02$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.04	306	43.1%132 W · 174 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Francesinhas	21c	152.38$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.38	242	35.5%86 W · 156 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fd…7fefbacked Francesinhas	25c	135.05$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.33	22	72.7%16 W · 6 L	+5.1wins	+0.23per pick	50cpaid	+94.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked GTZ Esports	25c	128.34$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	434	53.5%232 W · 202 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7a…aaaebacked Francesinhas	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	261	51.7%135 W · 126 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa91a…ddacbacked Francesinhas	29c	123.28$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.53	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+64%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2b…51c2backed GTZ Esports	14c	123$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked GTZ Esports	23c	110$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	1,241	34.7%431 W · 810 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2da2…fa9fbacked GTZ Esports	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	-8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked GTZ Esports	23c	108.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e59…cc2ebacked GTZ Esports	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…fd36backed Francesinhas	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	399	56.6%226 W · 173 L	+12.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked GTZ Esports	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c0…e88fbacked GTZ Esports	20c	96$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed GTZ Esports	22c	95.97$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	268	56.7%152 W · 116 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed GTZ Esports	23c	87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	183	59.6%109 W · 74 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked GTZ Esports	19c	80$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	1,318	47.3%624 W · 694 L	-31.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked GTZ Esports	24c	75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	148	46.6%69 W · 79 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Francesinhas	54c	73.12$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.51	132	49.2%65 W · 67 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked GTZ Esports	20c	69.65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	117	54.7%64 W · 53 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe43…8f09backed GTZ Esports	20c	65.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	64cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee8…7406backed GTZ Esports	22c	65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Francesinhas	73c	54$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.78	2,311	39.4%910 W · 1,401 L	-83.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Francesinhas	77c	51.41$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.76	360	47.5%171 W · 189 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Francesinhas	78c	51.28$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	320	50%160 W · 160 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Francesinhas	63c	50.68$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.55	94	61.7%58 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3b…d591backed GTZ Esports	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	94	50%47 W · 47 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed GTZ Esports	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	360	48.9%176 W · 184 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Francesinhas	30c	49.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.49	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ed1…18a8backed GTZ Esports	27c	49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Francesinhas	22c	45.99$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.87	283	41%116 W · 167 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62ca…79abbacked GTZ Esports	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d28…87b5backed Francesinhas	78c	32.51$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	65	69.2%45 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	66cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed GTZ Esports	76c	22.79$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	751	50.7%381 W · 370 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…ced8backed Francesinhas	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	323	71.2%230 W · 93 L	+14.9wins	+0.05per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb94a…e11bbacked Francesinhas	78c	17.16$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.84	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbbf…388ebacked Francesinhas	80c	15.19$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.1	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Francesinhas	75c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.7	1,671	57.9%968 W · 703 L	+70.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b7…1929backed Francesinhas	77c	13.51$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.11	37	75.7%28 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47ca…98cfbacked Francesinhas	79c	13.06$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.78	18	88.9%16 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	75cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market