MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecba59ec0c54a11adbf6d61b163de7cf4cd0016fce76fbc5d12bfd124d120d16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 60c | 3,192$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 2,739$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 1,740$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.52 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 1,291$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.03 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 1,254$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 46c | 1,195$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 72c | 840$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 794.82$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 72c | 693.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.97 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 53c | 518.87$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.87 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 466.6$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.94 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 65c | 462.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.26 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 57c | 389.43$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.98 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 59c | 327.33$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 18c | 243.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 16c | 177.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 100.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Over | 18c | 95.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 18c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Under | 51c | 77.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 20c | 58.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 59c | 40.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 35.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 28.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…5f41backed Under | 42c | 25.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed Over | 62c | 25.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Over | 63c | 25.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 21.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.