Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Lugano win on 2026-07-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecc7cc93867abbb7ff03a186f0d99ec6f8dfbcca80db8d111d7e279f9ef5f858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 15c | 6,489$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 71c | 3,122$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.34 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 11c | 3,058$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.48 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 38c | 1,613$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.9 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 32c | 1,562$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.46 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed No | 1c | 1,407$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…db72backed Yes | 75c | 1,337$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Yes | 63c | 1,165$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.34 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 25c | 1,044$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.27 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 16c | 970.76$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.51 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…7397backed No | 37c | 683.97$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 34c | 661.3$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.58 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 25c | 626.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 542.21$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.45 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 60c | 402.83$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 4c | 384.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 321.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 36c | 299.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 40c | 228.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…5cd4backed No | 7c | 225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 32c | 214.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 45c | 179.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 55c | 169.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…074bbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 33c | 149.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…9b98backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 23c | 134.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…fcb2backed Yes | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 19c | 120.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 33c | 104$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…9bd9backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 32c | 98.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 61c | 86.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 59c | 83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 32c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 58c | 67.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 64c | 66.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 29c | 62.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 76c | 60.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed Yes | 60c | 56.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked No | 23c | 48.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7b…3d69backed Yes | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Yes | 59c | 45.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…923ebacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 35c | 37.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…602fbacked No | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 79c | 30.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 41c | 28.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37e…2709backed Yes | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…2e50backed Yes | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lugano win on 2026-07-29?this page
- Will KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano end in a draw?No won
- Will KF Dukagjini Klinë win on 2026-07-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.