College Football · resolved market
New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecc9f7cc297d8e03fcb42a6db1f26916e9ecf6ee3c7e01b9537cbd6db46a3e66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Kentuckyof New Mexico State, Western Kentucky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $272,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Western Kentucky | 76c | 221,727$167,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,321.17 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed New Mexico State | 24c | 50,000$12,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,100 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked New Mexico State | 24c | 40,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked New Mexico State | 24c | 30,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked New Mexico State | 25c | 26,314$6,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,575.47 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed New Mexico State | 31c | 24,122$7,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,573.82 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked New Mexico State | 25c | 17,000$4,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed New Mexico State | 24c | 13,421$3,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,221 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Western Kentucky | 76c | 13,084$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.96 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico State | 25c | 12,047$3,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,071.3 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked New Mexico State | 25c | 11,700$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked New Mexico State | 26c | 8,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Western Kentucky | 67c | 7,562$5,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.56 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked New Mexico State | 25c | 4,047$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.75 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed New Mexico State | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed New Mexico State | 25c | 3,410$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.59 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Western Kentucky | 63c | 2,904$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.35 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…9286backed New Mexico State | 27c | 2,241$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdde2…db05backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 2,240$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed New Mexico State | 26c | 2,006$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.39 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Western Kentucky | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked New Mexico State | 26c | 1,998$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…d8debacked Western Kentucky | 74c | 1,435$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179c…2d61backed New Mexico State | 26c | 1,433$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Western Kentucky | 64c | 1,380$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.8 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked New Mexico State | 25c | 1,200$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.41 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed New Mexico State | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed New Mexico State | 26c | 961.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Western Kentucky | 66c | 744.81$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.81 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Western Kentucky | 74c | 719$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.81 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Western Kentucky | 73c | 715.07$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.07 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed New Mexico State | 25c | 700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Western Kentucky | 74c | 675$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed New Mexico State | 29c | 436.33$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…881ebacked New Mexico State | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked New Mexico State | 24c | 244.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked New Mexico State | 27c | 240.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 207$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…31c8backed Western Kentucky | 76c | 201.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed New Mexico State | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Western Kentucky | 68c | 185.05$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed New Mexico State | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked New Mexico State | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked New Mexico State | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…3b53backed New Mexico State | 27c | 142.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…95ffbacked Western Kentucky | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 26 | 92.3%24 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…e520backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…6dcebacked New Mexico State | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed New Mexico State | 26c | 92.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed New Mexico State | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Western Kentucky | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed New Mexico State | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…317abacked Western Kentucky | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 66.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked New Mexico State | 32c | 43.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked New Mexico State | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed New Mexico State | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…e189backed Western Kentucky | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0538backed Western Kentucky | 74c | 32.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…cc08backed Western Kentucky | 74c | 31.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876c…7d86backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Western Kentucky | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Mexico State vs. Western Kentuckythis page
- New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky: O/U 52.5Under won
- O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Western Kentucky (-8.5)Western Kentucky won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.