Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Cal Poly Mustangs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0fc05b9889d070a166214b57c32b0ba01b32b6c9aff6a33140454482943f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsof Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Cal Poly Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 75c | 13,901$10,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,475.12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 4,807$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.79 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 4,144$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0171backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 78c | 4,134$3,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.74 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 3,339$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.67 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 30c | 1,359$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.59 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 1,357$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.3 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 15c | 1,317$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 16c | 1,184$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.11 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 77c | 1,153$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.28 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 30c | 1,051$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 76c | 913.52$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 76c | 908.39$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.86 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 28c | 881$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 809.96$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…2b2ebacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 68c | 718.15$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 69c | 670.77$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.94 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 24c | 506.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 72c | 386.3$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 372.53$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 368.13$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 21c | 359.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 24c | 327.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 283.4$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…a105backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 281.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 27c | 276$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 261.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 235.36$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 72c | 222.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 76c | 168.14$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 164$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 24c | 161.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 146$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…9c40backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 15c | 96.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 73c | 95.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 73c | 84.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 23c | 80.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…d3abbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 34.2%69 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 72.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 59.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 25c | 47.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22c8…819bbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…162ebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 28c | 40.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 35.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 215 | 35.3%76 W · 139 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 80c | 24.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad68…b97cbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…c0debacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 76c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Cal Poly Mustangsthis page
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-4.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-5.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.