CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed2d4dc936462b35f29661340f048a7ae2b0d844fb19ef5a8e4e3e08918efcf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Over | 49c | 471.11$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.33 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Under | 51c | 420.01$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.21 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Over | 48c | 316.22$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Under | 52c | 223.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…3dd8backed Under | 53c | 182.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 52c | 169.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…b645backed Under | 52c | 81.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 48c | 29.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 25.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 46c | 24.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…c9afbacked Under | 53c | 19.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 WinnerG2 won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)G2 won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)G2 won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)G2 won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)Spirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)G2 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.