Premier League · resolved market
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed678c963eb96bcdb733721e09e3bebf644adba002e8d1445f5d6e8f236f7fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,818$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 10c | 1,246$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.21 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…5c8ebacked Yes | 8c | 504.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 9c | 353.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…4486backed Yes | 7c | 350.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…2ea6backed Yes | 8c | 339.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…15ebbacked Yes | 7c | 283.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937a…dbc8backed Yes | 20c | 240.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 220.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 219.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa92…5899backed Yes | 8c | 190.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 77c | 88.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 75c | 75.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 138 | 32.6%45 W · 93 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f32…583fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?this page
- Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?No won
- Will Cardiff win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?No won
- Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?No won
- Will Fulham win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?No won
- Will Grimsby Town win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?No won
- Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?No won
- Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?Yes won
- Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?No won
- Will Wrexham win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.