Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedb6450fddf23856e440ebac362fdffb503143e99d4afbe4ea218697be920355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 79c | 760.22$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.98 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 354.05$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 10c | 246.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 243.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 44c | 193.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 166.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 40c | 164.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 126.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes | 51c | 119.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 61c | 102.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 14c | 83.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 38c | 82.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 76.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 76c | 74.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 73.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffcf…67b0backed Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 52c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 41c | 57.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cf…aa54backed No | 39c | 51.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…64ebbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…3785backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…6ab5backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 48c | 48.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 34.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 33.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 61c | 33.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 43c | 33.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 51c | 26.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…d22fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…7c49backed Yes | 64c | 19.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.