Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x639e5146ef4e24e0fb3e5ee3309c49ef711943e9aa8592957c9e1991018ba6a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 60c | 386.27$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.88 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 333.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 62c | 286.06$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.83 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 72c | 279.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 74c | 255.05$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.09 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 249.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.67 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed No | 73c | 178.59$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 49c | 153.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 125.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 124.79$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 108.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 107.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 34c | 107.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 103.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 75c | 103.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 101.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb200…7137backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 97.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 93.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 92.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 82.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 27c | 67.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 73c | 61.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed No | 72c | 59.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 42c | 59.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 24c | 57.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…64ebbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…ab27backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 62c | 48.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4742backed Yes | 35c | 48.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffcf…67b0backed Yes | 65c | 46.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 61c | 42.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 40.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 28c | 39.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 72c | 37.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 61c | 36.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…3497backed No | 55c | 35.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 64c | 32.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 39c | 32.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 47c | 29.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 26.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…2873backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 76c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed No | 78c | 14.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.