Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee1547db20d87fa707fe72dfeddb06024394ab732b86a775de03b75da7a2e65b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 1,119$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 48c | 465.39$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.51 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 24c | 441.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed No | 46c | 304.74$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 232.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 45c | 212.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 126.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 122$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 107.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 78c | 104.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 104$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 54c | 92.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 48c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 85.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 81.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 54c | 80.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 70.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed No | 39c | 66.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 66.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Yes | 54c | 65.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 63.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…191bbacked No | 51c | 45.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 44.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 50c | 42.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5b…1566backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 32c | 39.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 68c | 35.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 33.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 39c | 32.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 31.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 50c | 28.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 53c | 28.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 54c | 27.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 48c | 24.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 55c | 23.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 22.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 60c | 18.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on July 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.