TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ann Liof Ann Li, Shuai Zhang
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Shuai Zhang15c9,761$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.738,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Ann Li73c4,821$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.0950458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Ann Li77c3,360$2,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.381,82853.1%971 W · 857 L-44.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Shuai Zhang27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81068935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Shuai Zhang14c2,738$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.0427132.1%87 W · 184 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Ann Li78c2,559$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.031,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Ann Li71c2,073$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.2956757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Shuai Zhang19c2,000$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.530827.6%85 W · 223 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cd…841dbacked Shuai Zhang6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010122.8%23 W · 78 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3957…35f0backed Ann Li73c1,832$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.1917171.9%123 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0d…7435backed Shuai Zhang29c1,724$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Shuai Zhang25c1,636$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.614,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Shuai Zhang28c1,430$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.3933438.6%129 W · 205 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Ann Li74c1,344$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.3493168.1%634 W · 297 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb911…7c31backed Shuai Zhang18c1,250$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.984916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Shuai Zhang24c1,201$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.13,54142.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L-44.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shuai Zhang10c1,177$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4811,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Ann Li78c1,108$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.4153655.4%297 W · 239 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Shuai Zhang29c1,068$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.9857842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Shuai Zhang27c1,029$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.492,13736.8%787 W · 1,350 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Shuai Zhang27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27037744.8%169 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Shuai Zhang27c999.97$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9985634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Shuai Zhang27c942.74$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,35438.3%518 W · 836 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec3…e330backed Ann Li73c941.15$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.1142747.8%204 W · 223 L+1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Shuai Zhang28c892.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Shuai Zhang1c786.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1352038.5%200 W · 320 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Ann Li77c764.82$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.475,28856.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L+231.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Ann Li73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.931,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Shuai Zhang29c655.17$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19025544.7%114 W · 141 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Ann Li72c600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16836361.7%224 W · 139 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Shuai Zhang27c573.54$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8678336%282 W · 501 L+36.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Shuai Zhang23c561.45$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.311,76446.8%826 W · 938 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Shuai Zhang30c560.53$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1685348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Shuai Zhang30c560.53$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1665952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Shuai Zhang16c519.15$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9913051.5%67 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Shuai Zhang18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…ddd3backed Shuai Zhang23c440$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.210437.5%39 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Ann Li71c421.49$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.492,14454.2%1,162 W · 982 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Shuai Zhang28c350$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9834242.4%145 W · 197 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Shuai Zhang21c264.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8285624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Ann Li77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7467757.6%390 W · 287 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Ann Li72c237.18$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.413,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Shuai Zhang23c227.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.283,62145.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L-3.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Shuai Zhang24c224.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1891755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Ann Li77c215.14$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.956,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Ann Li71c198.37$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3353843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fe…8726backed Shuai Zhang20c156.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323351.5%17 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Ann Li71c154.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.851,09052.6%573 W · 517 L-4.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c5…720fbacked Ann Li72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.894261.9%26 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Ann Li73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9971165.1%463 W · 248 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Ann Li77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…5300backed Ann Li77c129$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.679152.7%48 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Shuai Zhang28c125$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3658745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Ann Li77c108.57$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8178350.3%394 W · 389 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Ann Li77c104.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.522540.4%91 W · 134 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Shuai Zhang23c104.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Shuai Zhang22c104.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.842,07944.4%923 W · 1,156 L-52.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Shuai Zhang28c104.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.183,63154.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L+110.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Shuai Zhang24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,41239.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L-11.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Shuai Zhang20c103.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.461,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d18…6f62backed Ann Li71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2956062.5%350 W · 210 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe688…4d80backed Ann Li74c94.59$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Shuai Zhang19c91.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0699244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Ann Li79c89.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.196,74048.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L+58.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Shuai Zhang27c85.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7526244.7%117 W · 145 L-15.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Shuai Zhang27c80.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.452,00453.2%1,067 W · 937 L+52.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c49…8762backed Shuai Zhang29c70.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…32a7backed Ann Li72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4416372.4%118 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe132…7a38backed Ann Li72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4418164.1%116 W · 65 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0787…43d5backed Shuai Zhang29c67.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6611748.7%57 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ebf…d94fbacked Shuai Zhang29c67.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Ann Li75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd1…e984backed Ann Li73c63.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.013268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe22f…49b1backed Shuai Zhang29c62.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188248.8%40 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Shuai Zhang26c57.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.041,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Shuai Zhang20c54.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,14237.3%799 W · 1,343 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Ann Li72c52.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6812959.7%77 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Shuai Zhang25c50.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Shuai Zhang29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511952.1%62 W · 57 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ann Li71c49.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.367,74550.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L+93.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Shuai Zhang28c44.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.575,19928.8%1,496 W · 3,703 L-18.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a54…e581backed Ann Li75c40.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1310560%63 W · 42 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Shuai Zhang26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42,44235.8%874 W · 1,568 L-29.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3400…97c8backed Ann Li72c38.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1400…765dbacked Shuai Zhang31c36.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2232732.1%105 W · 222 L-0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40c…a7d3backed Ann Li72c36.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc05…4eb4backed Ann Li72c33.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.337561.3%46 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…fba8backed Ann Li79c32.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8938074.5%283 W · 97 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6850…3605backed Ann Li72c32.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Ann Li74c32.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.411,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed Ann Li72c32.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.997964.6%51 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bf6…ba09backed Ann Li72c31.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x749f…714bbacked Ann Li72c30.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5610562.9%66 W · 39 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-3.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x627f…595cbacked Ann Li72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7812477.4%96 W · 28 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Ann Li73c27.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5359965.8%394 W · 205 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x520c…51a8backed Ann Li75c26.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.638371.1%59 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Ann Li70c25.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.686,99839.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L-16.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…f09abacked Ann Li78c25.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.569571.6%68 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Ann Li77c25.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.862,69647.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L+46.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb1…3c8abacked Ann Li76c24.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.843060%18 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.