Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeed3da6514c7c0c97949ab6c563696e15a63438d2ed25da5657dc63735d84962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 0c | 15,102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 1c | 1,568$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 9c | 1,285$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 26c | 1,027$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.64 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 14c | 1,010$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.35 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 73c | 559.41$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.97 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 19c | 556.27$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.87 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 12c | 500$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.29 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 8c | 480.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.54 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 58c | 441.64$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.73 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 22c | 420$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…3c00backed No | 5c | 417.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 375$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc3…3af9backed No | 27c | 374.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 361.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed No | 27c | 327.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 28c | 319.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.99 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 299.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 78c | 299.84$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 15c | 285.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.47 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 282.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.68 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed No | 24c | 279.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 39c | 248.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 25c | 241.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.64 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 236.41$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 226.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 75c | 222.83$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 36c | 218.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed No | 12c | 212.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 204$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 173.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddf…e43fbacked No | 15c | 153.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 29c | 133.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 110.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 28c | 108.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 13c | 102.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 80c | 102.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 41c | 98.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 23c | 93.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 92.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 21c | 88.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 27c | 86.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 17c | 83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 25c | 72.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 23c | 68.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 56c | 60.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 60.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb0…55b7backed No | 26c | 57.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…9773backed No | 80c | 55.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 75c | 55.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed No | 23c | 51.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed No | 26c | 47.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 74c | 42.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e4…1dbabacked No | 28c | 41.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…9498backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 77c | 39.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…2f35backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…737abacked No | 71c | 24.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed Yes | 77c | 22.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 76c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…7fe9backed Yes | 77c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed Yes | 77c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 79c | 12.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…a676backed Yes | 80c | 12.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.