Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f3978c3a66d07fed699b162a957edebb5ac22cf762166284cfb746ff0e1807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,871$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 8c | 1,724$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 35c | 1,200$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.89 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 2c | 831.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 810.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 693$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…a793backed Yes | 39c | 462.14$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 24c | 455.66$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 7c | 410$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 13c | 403.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 272.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 25c | 256.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed No | 40c | 237.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 79c | 224.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed No | 52c | 204.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.97 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 202.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 190.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 25c | 190$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 10c | 189.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 182.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 55c | 160.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 33c | 151.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…6fb4backed Yes | 8c | 149.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed No | 37c | 127.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 24c | 124$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 76c | 119$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 60c | 109.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 108.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 15c | 102.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed Yes | 47c | 102.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 34c | 101.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 67c | 101.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 42c | 100.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed No | 35c | 100.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 59c | 88.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 88.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 47c | 88.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…ab13backed No | 51c | 85.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 84.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 82.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…3c7dbacked No | 50c | 78.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 78.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 58c | 74.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 55c | 70.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked No | 40c | 67.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 37c | 61.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 61.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 59c | 61.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 51c | 60.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 20c | 59.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 57.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 65c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked No | 38c | 52.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked No | 46c | 51.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed Yes | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 46.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed No | 33c | 45.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 40c | 45.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 45.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 55c | 44.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 77c | 44.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed No | 38c | 43.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed No | 47c | 43.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…4d24backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 63c | 39.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 52c | 38.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 39c | 35.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed No | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 34.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 47c | 32.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed No | 64c | 31.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 41c | 28.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 42c | 25.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.