Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe4f4e5ce0c10219cfca17cab0c0effbfbf400bd7c4d47b91026633ccf108c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,059$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.83 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked Yes | 72c | 983.29$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.99 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 70c | 800.49$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.51 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 2c | 700.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked No | 79c | 673.48$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 28c | 598.05$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 589.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 30c | 538.58$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.12 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 37c | 477.02$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…e3fcbacked No | 45c | 390.34$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 354.23$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 340$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 6c | 337.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 18c | 314.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 35c | 312.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 36c | 312.04$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…661bbacked Yes | 34c | 297.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 296.83$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 267.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…a793backed Yes | 29c | 262$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 53c | 213.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 78c | 211.18$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 22c | 209.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 33c | 206.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 200.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.42 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 42c | 197.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 65c | 193.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed No | 46c | 184.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 182.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 7c | 171.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 167.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 74c | 159.71$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 33c | 151.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 26c | 150.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d98cbacked Yes | 71c | 140.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 13c | 135.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 37c | 134.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…512fbacked Yes | 79c | 126.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed No | 32c | 125.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 40c | 123.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…6843backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 34c | 119.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 76c | 117$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 33c | 105.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 32c | 103.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 101.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed No | 46c | 100.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…4d11backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4bcfbacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf420…eab9backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 28c | 99.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e4…1dbabacked Yes | 72c | 97.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 53c | 93.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…9439backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 80.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 30c | 79.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb0…55b7backed No | 58c | 76.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 76.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 58c | 76.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 64c | 74.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984b…3c50backed Yes | 49c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 65.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 53c | 65.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 54c | 64.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed No | 45c | 62.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked No | 35c | 56.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 55c | 54.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0b5dbacked No | 26c | 53.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed No | 43c | 50.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…4f96backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…5c87backed Yes | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 40c | 49.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Yes | 63c | 48.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked No | 34c | 44.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 76c | 44.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 46c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 43.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f9…ed8abacked Yes | 58c | 43.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 49c | 42.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 71c | 41.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Yes | 76c | 39.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 31c | 36.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 73c | 36.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…ce86backed Yes | 70c | 35.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.