Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0ee45bfab42770d34625ca2a0ffb07d67c056cd9bdb081569256d8668e052f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 31c | 1,718$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.26 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,241$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 620.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 553.01$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 460$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 79c | 405$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 389.52$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 387.83$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 331.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 71c | 274.22$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 23c | 215.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 205.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 25c | 201.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 188.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 176.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 30c | 166.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked Yes | 68c | 166.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 165.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 53c | 163.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 156.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 70c | 141.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 141.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…ba20backed No | 73c | 122.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 112.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 36c | 109.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 105.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 36c | 96.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 37c | 89.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 87.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 85.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 37c | 75.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 69.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 68.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 64.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 50c | 62.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 53c | 61.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 61.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 22c | 61.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 36c | 57.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 52.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 47c | 52.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 48.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 47.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…584dbacked Yes | 55c | 43.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 36.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 44c | 36.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 35.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 34.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 59c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 57c | 26.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…8b2ebacked Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 46c | 24.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 58c | 19.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.