TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes48c1,489$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.641,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes59c696.89$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.2689544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes53c626.54$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.024,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No41c351.38$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.644,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No44c332.51$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.32,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No6c330.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No52c327$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.042,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No47c324.07$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.922,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No49c240.45$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.592,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes58c230.49$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes52c211.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5464446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6436…0fbbbacked No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No49c179.08$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.334,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c176.93$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.495,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No47c159.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.191,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3427…2ff7backed Yes57c157.89$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.894247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes65c154.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1419559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No9c145.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.586,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No39c140.32$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.728756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.452758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes63c136.36$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.65,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e03…d5f0backed Yes59c129.64$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes49c120.14$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes63c120$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.381,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes68c119$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.631,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No48c117.31$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.312,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No37c112.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.264,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No50c104.04$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8971057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes57c103.38$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.459,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No40c100.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.744,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked Yes35c98.77$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5216295.7%155 W · 7 L+61.2wins+0.38per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight86+0.33 edge/pick
0xb37c…7e53backed No51c98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No38c94.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.171,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes34c89.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.144358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes25c86.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2443441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No44c78.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4452322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes65c77.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3818555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes51c66.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5454656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes59c65.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.861,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No39c64.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1421338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c61.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.526,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No41c59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.071,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No37c50.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4517457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No49c49.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.891,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No43c46.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No53c46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.384,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.225758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed No37c39.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6730136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No45c38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.181855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes31c37.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0426025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…2cbcbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes44c37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6113636%49 W · 87 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes59c33.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.761,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes55c33.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes63c31.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6815948.4%77 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No36c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.274,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No38c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7819648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No51c26.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4116935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6447738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.254,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418f…5f3bbacked Yes50c24.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.091172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes63c23.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.699048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No78c23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.052,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No77c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.852,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes45c21.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9914053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes57c20.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.615246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.892761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.220056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.616946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.613351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.615545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.618254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.615345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…ea22backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64847.9%23 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked Yes58c19.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1729769.4%206 W · 91 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No79c17.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.622,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.