NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef4409d978530ffd01d25fbfe43181075d5d117c19f9bccccd4c889a803b6b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6557…0999backed Over | 44c | 1,878$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.66 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,525$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 1,288$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.29 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 1,277$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.91 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 1,250$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.61 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 968.2$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 54c | 528.76$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.23 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 492.84$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.74 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 56c | 485.98$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.15 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 46c | 462$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 407.69$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.11 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7521…c083backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 263.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…b58ebacked Under | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 107 | 25.2%27 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 217.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 52c | 187.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 150.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 44c | 125.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 47c | 102.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 46c | 90.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 86.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 47c | 83.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…f3a8backed Under | 53c | 63.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 44c | 57.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 42c | 50.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked Under | 65c | 33.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Over | 45c | 33.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…9798backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…3fb1backed Over | 51c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 243.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Heat vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-30.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.