Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefbbae3837377cd22a098a8e2b854345fd0faf1f575f56f0ead23d782760e1c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 381.52$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 250.84$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 215.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 204.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 66c | 183.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 143.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 140.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 115.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 106.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 92.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 47c | 85.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 42c | 84.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 81.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 31c | 74.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 47c | 63.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 60.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 52c | 60.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 34c | 60.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 47c | 58.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 49c | 57.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 28c | 54.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 59c | 46.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 43.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 67c | 42.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 60c | 41.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 42c | 36.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 35.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 58c | 32.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 32.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 64c | 27.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 60c | 27.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 25.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 76c | 24.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 60c | 23.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 65c | 23.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 61c | 22.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 48c | 22.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 21.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 59c | 17.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 61c | 17.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.