Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefcbf54a0a5398cf4e72dbe247fb953898433e0744b2c0788d56dac492460207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,176$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.73 | 1,894 | 42.4%803 W · 1,091 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 398.63$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.14 | 483 | 45.8%221 W · 262 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 374.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.38 | 11,017 | 37.3%4,111 W · 6,906 L | +434.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 39c | 309.43$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 277.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1,050 | 68.8%722 W · 328 L | -33.0wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 80c | 236.88$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 60c | 206.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 51c | 159.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 151.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 1,972 | 55.8%1,101 W · 871 L | -36.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 37c | 141.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 222 | 51.8%115 W · 107 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 115$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 5,288 | 49.8%2,631 W · 2,657 L | -168.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 114$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 2,450 | 58%1,420 W · 1,030 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 113.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 12,587 | 46.8%5,897 W · 6,690 L | -42.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 61c | 107.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 104.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 6,932 | 53.1%3,680 W · 3,252 L | +424.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 104.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 5,687 | 47.9%2,723 W · 2,964 L | +78.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked Yes | 70c | 103.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 10,084 | 44.8%4,522 W · 5,562 L | +259.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 491 | 39.9%196 W · 295 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 93.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7,234 | 9.3%675 W · 6,559 L | -1,116.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 92.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 6,203 | 49.2%3,054 W · 3,149 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 63c | 84.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 359 | 48.7%175 W · 184 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 3,825 | 65.8%2,517 W · 1,308 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,007 | 57%574 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 37c | 77.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 66c | 74.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 73.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 1,740 | 52.6%915 W · 825 L | -42.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 71.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2,196 | 53%1,163 W · 1,033 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 56c | 71.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 178 | 37.1%66 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1,116 | 51.8%578 W · 538 L | +76.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 68.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 634 | 31.5%200 W · 434 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 66.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3,760 | 34%1,277 W · 2,483 L | -193.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 1,699 | 38%646 W · 1,053 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 564 | 38.5%217 W · 347 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 44c | 55.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 45c | 52.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 308 | 40.3%124 W · 184 L | +25.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 39c | 52.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,337 | 53.7%718 W · 619 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 4,041 | 35.6%1,438 W · 2,603 L | +41.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 50c | 47.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 561 | 38.9%218 W · 343 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 45.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10,010 | 45.9%4,590 W · 5,420 L | -314.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 67c | 40.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 37c | 40.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 39c | 38.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 62c | 37.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,426 | 31.1%444 W · 982 L | -94.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 74c | 33.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 63c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 66c | 30.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,302 | 58.3%1,342 W · 960 L | +85.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 37c | 30.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,095 | 51%558 W · 537 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 108 | 59.3%64 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 29.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,292 | 56.8%1,302 W · 990 L | +68.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 76c | 28.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 70c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,839 | 62.9%1,157 W · 682 L | -6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 26.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 5,071 | 53.5%2,715 W · 2,356 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 62c | 23.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 171 | 59.1%101 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 19.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2,458 | 79.6%1,956 W · 502 L | +104.3wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 194 | 63.9%124 W · 70 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…5d9ebacked No | 62c | 17.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.39per pick | 62cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 182 | 26.9%49 W · 133 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5,855 | 60%3,512 W · 2,343 L | -114.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.