MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd498d79163b230796330cf8837b990b115caba285f54a5dbf6b62afff4e9d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Royals, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6371…c2bfbacked Royals | 74c | 5,896$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,343.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Astros | 55c | 1,561$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.92 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 29c | 1,503$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.72 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Royals | 71c | 1,497$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.24 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 43c | 930.98$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Royals | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Astros | 53c | 840$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.8 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Royals | 34c | 727.78$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Astros | 30c | 707.15$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.66 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Astros | 45c | 625.65$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.98 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4142…1853backed Royals | 45c | 561.83$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Astros | 35c | 406$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.01 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Royals | 70c | 388.34$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.31 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…b172backed Astros | 76c | 315.37$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Astros | 30c | 306.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.24 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 53c | 298.63$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.36 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 7c | 247.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e4…e7efbacked Royals | 76c | 233.45$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 30c | 208.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Astros | 54c | 200.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Astros | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…164ebacked Astros | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Royals | 47c | 112.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…e59bbacked Astros | 54c | 108$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Royals | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Astros | 52c | 95.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Astros | 35c | 88.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…5cdcbacked Royals | 74c | 86.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Royals | 75c | 80.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50cd…3477backed Astros | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e57…6151backed Royals | 47c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10e…1284backed Royals | 67c | 71.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Astros | 33c | 70.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Astros | 56c | 66.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…3e29backed Royals | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9938…c7e8backed Astros | 32c | 63.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Astros | 50c | 61.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Royals | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Astros | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…10efbacked Astros | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…0211backed Royals | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 55c | 50.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Royals | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Royals | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Astros | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc47…aae1backed Royals | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…6014backed Astros | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Royals | 43c | 43.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Astros | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…bf0bbacked Astros | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…a006backed Royals | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Astros | 50c | 30.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Astros | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Astros | 53c | 23.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Royals | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.