Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe1da1941139ca9ad4b07cf7998d164be7e16e6b8e5c64adae0ff3bce93045a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,811 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 51c | 7,777$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.25 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 3,888$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.01 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,817$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.52 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 42c | 2,766$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.57 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 2,407$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.59 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…4788backed Over | 6c | 1,804$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 58c | 900$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 675.31$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.14 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 59c | 621.63$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 52c | 528.63$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.37 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 54c | 498.28$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.31 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 44c | 466.13$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.1 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 59c | 322.41$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 274.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 242.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 59c | 220.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 52c | 192.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 51c | 186.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 156.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 59c | 153.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 144.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 119.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 49c | 101.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 59c | 101.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 42c | 99.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 42c | 94.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…8e34backed Under | 19c | 93.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 18cpaid | +245.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Under | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 74c | 88.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 81.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 45c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 45c | 59.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…77aebacked Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 53c | 47.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 50c | 46.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 42c | 39.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 37c | 35.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Over | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 46c | 31.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…e24cbacked Under | 45c | 30.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 43c | 30.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 58c | 30.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 52c | 26.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 55c | 19.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5Under won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)HNK Rijeka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.