Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff80f4cd71c76957c4383ac031a7d2fa131544a21676161c751e43d17a82856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 54c | 4,633$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.73 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 2,992$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.87 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 22c | 1,468$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.94 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 55c | 1,069$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Over | 24c | 971$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 68c | 849.16$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.73 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 52c | 770.04$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 48c | 666.67$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 55c | 340$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked Over | 50c | 332$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…0f59backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Over | 8c | 186.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 80c | 172.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 48c | 152.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 138.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 130.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3490backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Under | 68c | 77.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 55c | 72.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 36c | 53.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…1316backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Over | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…eff9backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 56cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 27.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…abe9backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.