Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Natsuho Arakawa vs Amy Stevens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf000d32c9519273c8a4b4d8a62085cb8a8e5fa924afc889e5902a9629d255f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amy Stevensof Natsuho Arakawa, Amy Stevens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Amy Stevens | 29c | 4,662$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.28 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 70c | 4,523$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.69 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Natsuho Arakawa | 47c | 2,190$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.49 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Amy Stevens | 44c | 1,634$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.96 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Amy Stevens | 47c | 1,317$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.93 | 377 | 38.2%144 W · 233 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Natsuho Arakawa | 53c | 1,121$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.12 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…492ebacked Natsuho Arakawa | 29c | 603$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ed01backed Natsuho Arakawa | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Amy Stevens | 28c | 276.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Amy Stevens | 27c | 228.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.56 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Amy Stevens | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 302 | 35.4%107 W · 195 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Amy Stevens | 40c | 210.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.16 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 72c | 88.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Amy Stevens | 42c | 86.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Amy Stevens | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Natsuho Arakawa | 64c | 69.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Natsuho Arakawa | 43c | 63.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…95e8backed Natsuho Arakawa | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Amy Stevens | 74c | 57.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Amy Stevens | 32c | 56.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Amy Stevens | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…16a8backed Amy Stevens | 32c | 48.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Natsuho Arakawa | 53c | 45.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Amy Stevens | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 514 | 57.2%294 W · 220 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Amy Stevens | 80c | 36.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…af5bbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 39c | 36.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…3d5cbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 55c | 32.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 303 | 53.5%162 W · 141 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Natsuho Arakawa | 61c | 32.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Natsuho Arakawa | 60c | 30.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 67c | 27.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Amy Stevens | 47c | 26.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Natsuho Arakawa | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Natsuho Arakawa | 53c | 23.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…c7a2backed Amy Stevens | 62c | 22.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Amy Stevens | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd74…00a1backed Amy Stevens | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 496 | 58.1%288 W · 208 L | +32.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…6794backed Natsuho Arakawa | 65c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 369 | 54.2%200 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…ee45backed Natsuho Arakawa | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.