Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b119b137091ec8750f793e2e0cbe4fafcab6b2098f1f07d2afe006cb5732a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GLYPHof GLYPH, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 32c | 1,996$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.87 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked GLYPH | 69c | 1,800$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Carstensz | 4c | 1,764$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Carstensz | 36c | 1,630$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.94 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Carstensz | 17c | 1,568$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.42 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Carstensz | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked GLYPH | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Carstensz | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Carstensz | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 19c | 856.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Carstensz | 26c | 843.8$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.33 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Carstensz | 20c | 648.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Carstensz | 37c | 647.35$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.72 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Carstensz | 32c | 617.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.36 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked GLYPH | 71c | 584.52$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked GLYPH | 78c | 527.71$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked GLYPH | 63c | 509.33$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.45 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…dd9abacked Carstensz | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked GLYPH | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked GLYPH | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed GLYPH | 77c | 477.69$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…021ebacked Carstensz | 29c | 468.35$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Carstensz | 21c | 437.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Carstensz | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz | 33c | 381.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 24c | 343.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed GLYPH | 70c | 322$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…bf38backed Carstensz | 42c | 289.63$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked Carstensz | 35c | 285.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…b5c4backed Carstensz | 33c | 283.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Carstensz | 27c | 262.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Carstensz | 28c | 254.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked GLYPH | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Carstensz | 65c | 230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Carstensz | 20c | 205.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Carstensz | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed GLYPH | 63c | 179.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Carstensz | 33c | 170$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…e6cebacked Carstensz | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked GLYPH | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked GLYPH | 76c | 128.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Carstensz | 20c | 121.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Carstensz | 33c | 118.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Carstensz | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked GLYPH | 53c | 89.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…ee29backed GLYPH | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 174 | 51.7%90 W · 84 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Carstensz | 21c | 62.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked GLYPH | 74c | 61.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked GLYPH | 48c | 60.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…22b6backed Carstensz | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Carstensz | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed GLYPH | 55c | 48.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…f1dbbacked GLYPH | 79c | 48.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…fbf1backed Carstensz | 29c | 47.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…2c93backed Carstensz | 29c | 44.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed GLYPH | 53c | 38.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…d4cdbacked Carstensz | 30c | 37.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed GLYPH | 38c | 37.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…6b96backed Carstensz | 33c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked GLYPH | 58c | 35.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Carstensz | 33c | 34.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…24aebacked GLYPH | 72c | 33.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed GLYPH | 67c | 31.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed GLYPH | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed GLYPH | 38c | 27.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked GLYPH | 77c | 13.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGLYPH won
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
- Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5)Carstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.