Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21246e3944a26fe060d251f01bbe2381507193792be9240ddbcd7d63612efb4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof GLYPH, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed GLYPH | 72c | 15,242$10,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,976.94 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Carstensz | 28c | 3,485$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.52 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Carstensz | 31c | 3,314$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.52 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…e588backed Carstensz | 72c | 3,300$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.85 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 28c | 2,894$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.56 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…ac6abacked Carstensz | 74c | 2,712$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.93 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Carstensz | 29c | 2,380$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.68 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2339…adc2backed Carstensz | 62c | 2,000$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…8659backed Carstensz | 67c | 2,000$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked GLYPH | 28c | 1,983$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.53 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…492dbacked GLYPH | 12c | 1,460$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed GLYPH | 23c | 1,283$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.76 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed GLYPH | 12c | 1,250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked GLYPH | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz | 25c | 1,013$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.2 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked GLYPH | 13c | 845.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked GLYPH | 27c | 791$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.37 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked GLYPH | 78c | 744.99$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.09 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed GLYPH | 55c | 734$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.94 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed GLYPH | 23c | 642$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…86c8backed GLYPH | 23c | 625.88$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked GLYPH | 19c | 625$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…9ec5backed GLYPH | 19c | 625$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed GLYPH | 19c | 625$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked GLYPH | 22c | 612$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed GLYPH | 23c | 600$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked GLYPH | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +600%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed GLYPH | 23c | 600$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked GLYPH | 26c | 487$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Carstensz | 28c | 445.45$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.72 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Carstensz | 50c | 429.62$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.81 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed GLYPH | 20c | 406$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed GLYPH | 20c | 406$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed GLYPH | 20c | 406$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 28c | 366.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.01 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed GLYPH | 25c | 353$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed GLYPH | 47c | 334.19$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.35 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…3be7backed Carstensz | 28c | 310$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d5…7146backed GLYPH | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked GLYPH | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked GLYPH | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed GLYPH | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e5…0cadbacked GLYPH | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Carstensz | 28c | 248.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Carstensz | 28c | 245.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.89 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…063fbacked GLYPH | 26c | 225$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…e6cebacked Carstensz | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked GLYPH | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Carstensz | 25c | 177.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Carstensz | 28c | 160.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed Carstensz | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Carstensz | 25c | 129.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…9a44backed GLYPH | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Carstensz | 28c | 81.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Carstensz | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Carstensz | 28c | 68.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked GLYPH | 80c | 66.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Carstensz | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Carstensz | 24c | 53.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…fbf1backed Carstensz | 25c | 49.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed GLYPH | 27c | 47.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked GLYPH | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…b5c4backed Carstensz | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked GLYPH | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed GLYPH | 58c | 26.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Carstensz | 55c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 106 | 62.3%66 W · 40 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked GLYPH | 65c | 20.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed GLYPH | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGLYPH won
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerGLYPH won
- Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5)Carstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.