TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,412 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c411.27$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.638,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…a280backed No75c332.79$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c283.45$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No38c279$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.965,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes27c267.35$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c223.46$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.435,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No71c206.98$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.831,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c193$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.535,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes40c187.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.741,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes31c166.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.442,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes34c160$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5546733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes40c141.86$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed Yes50c136.16$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.422560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c133.08$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.183,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No19c131.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.814,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No36c127.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5676755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes43c113.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9461929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c110.85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.284,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes54c110.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.811,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0514…f8c6backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.22650%13 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes35c99.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2816134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No62c98.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.093,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes32c97.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.733,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c94.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c94.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes31c80.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.993,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No72c77.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1546667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes53c77.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9251631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes55c76.56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75993.2%55 W · 4 L+21.7wins+0.37per pick56cpaid+80.4%equal weight79+0.26 edge/pick
0xfeb7…2f0fbacked Yes53c68.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.95862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9711…5d8bbacked No69c67.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick61cpaid-77.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No53c67.19$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.594,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No68c66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.661,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No77c65.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes57c63.8$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.286264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes28c63.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.113,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes44c63.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8526533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes24c62.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.52,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No42c61.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1631050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes26c60.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6671823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.363,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes52c57.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3611737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c55.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.47,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No55c54.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.841,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3617926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.991,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No73c49.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No56c48.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.32,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes30c45.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.775,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31a…5f51backed Yes27c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+30.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes39c42.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.638650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes27c41.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0652828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdcb9…1879backed Yes69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.44393%40 W · 3 L+14.6wins+0.34per pick59cpaid+59.4%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes45c39.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0334846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No63c39.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.713755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c39.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.678,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes41c35.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.83641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes30c34.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.521,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes37c32.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.320358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No62c32.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No63c31.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.541,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.930565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No68c29.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No64c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes36c27.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.783748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa921…f0eabacked No64c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.289362.4%58 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes38c26.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4345236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed Yes56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1131564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No51c24.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.379262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes52c22.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.879341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No72c21.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No54c20.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc44…2adbbacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9a…10ffbacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.584070%28 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6390…9bf0backed No70c19.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.435154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41c3…4d56backed No70c18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63655.6%20 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x608a…966bbacked No67c17.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.814761.7%29 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05bc…008abacked No70c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.99758.8%57 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfddd…cab9backed No71c15.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83268.8%22 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick75cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No73c15.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No73c13.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.